The next property surge?

[Simon Plumber]

Price Waterhouse Coopers were predicting a return to 2007 prices by 2020.

I believe prices will gradually fall for a few years yet before slowly starting to rise. The UK housing bubble is yet to deflate properly like the other bubbles in US, Ireland and Spain. So best waiting a few years yet before buying.

[Dan S]

You're absolutely right Simon, but it depends on people's personal circumstances and where they're intending to buy. If buyers are intending to stay in a newly bought property for several years at least, then paying rent for several years to hold out until the market corrects itself may be a false economy.

Of course, at the end of the day, it's all difficult to predict. You're certainly correct that something's got to give! Especially for first time buyers.

[danielzane]

In my opinion in the next 8 years

[Dan S]

That's probably not a bad estimate. Maybe a little too long in the future. People, and more importantly mortgage lenders, need to have enough time to forget that house price crashes can actually happen. Only then will everyone forget the lessons learned. It's a shame though, since property remains the most over inflated asset known to man...just look at the rebuild costs of a normal house compared to the sale price!

[Moby Jones]

Originally Posted by Dan S

If buyers are intending to stay in a newly bought property for several years at least, then paying rent for several years to hold out until the market corrects itself may be a false economy.

Of course, at the end of the day, it's all difficult to predict. You're certainly correct that something's got to give! Especially for first time buyers.

I totally agree about renting being false economy in some, if not the majority of cases. Renting is dead money if it's not a short term thing.

Why has something got to give? What laws of economice dictate that the UK has to follow the US etc?

It's true UK property is over valued. Our UK homes replacement cost is about half what we paid for it in december 2009 (That does not take into account the value of the land it is built on though).

[jodieB]

Well that is a million dollar question, when will the peak happen again and what do you invest in other then gold and Houses.

I am not a retail expert but with the global recession; there are many people living in negative equity. In the UK “The National Housing Federation (NHF) said the average buyer in England paid £216,800 for a home in 2007.

They may now have to wait until 2014 before prices recover enough to make their homes worth more than their loan.” Therefore house prices in the UK are likely to rise in 2014? When will it peak who knows? I would say that buying now as long as you have the capital would be a good long term investment because eventually house prices will rise; it is a case of supply and demand.

[Dan S]

Hi Moby

My expression of 'GOT' to give was more one of lamentation than unjustified statement. I wish you weren't correct but you may well be. Prices could tumble down to reasonable levels, or the following rather dystopian society could emerge...

...Those with parents who enjoyed the property boom where homes roughly doubled in value every 10 years will help their offspring. Additionally, those with access to financial support from family will get on the property ladder. Eventually, as property is handed down like an heirloom, there will be a stark and very real divide between those who rent and those who own their home. As buy to let investors enjoy the need for rental properties from the young, a deposit never gets saved.

There's nothing to stop this happening. Unfortunately OWNING a home isn't an amnesty international issue!

[builder66]

I am working in the housing industry at the momoent. We thought that it would pick up this year, but it now looks like 2014. There are some very good bargains out there if you have the cash.

[Dan S]

Builder66 is absolutely right, though cash buyers are generally always in a better position (especially at auction houses).

[scrumpy jack]

I consider myself a developer. I cannot wait around for house prices to be "just right" I intend to make the best of the current situation by finding a place cheap in auction!